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Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 2/8/10 |
For those of you who have gone into campaign minutiae withdrawal, there is good news: The Wrap is back. With primaries on the horizon and the real world (aka my day job) interfering a bit, it looks like the Wrap will be a three day a week feature for the next few months. So, expect to see the Wrap on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. And, on this particular Monday, there is MUCH to see.... THE U.S. SENATE FL-Sen: High-Ranking GOP House Member Sides With Marco Rubio In the latest sign that the GOP candidacy of Governor Charlie Crist is circling the drain, high-ranking House Republican Mike Pence has thrown his endorsement to insurgent GOP candidate Marco Rubio. Pence, you will recall, flirted with a Senate bid of his own earlier this month before standing down. IN-Sen: The Coats Rollout Continues to...Well...Amuse Former Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has decided to challenge Democrat Evan Bayh, is taking heavy incoming fire as he rolls out his campaign. Bad enough that the Senator-turned-lobbyist's firm lobbied for Yemen, but the DSCC quickly got on the board with an ad, complete with video, of Coats singing the praises of his home state...of North Carolina. NV-Sen: Tarkanian, Now the Frontrunner, Makes Flub Caught on Tape Recent polls, including one from Rasmussen late last week, make clear that Danny Tarkanian is the leading Republican in the race against Senator Harry Reid. Given that status, he probably doesn't want to get caught, on tape, accidentally getting Harry Reid and Ronald Reagan mixed up. NY-Sen "A": Charles Schumer Likely To Get Serious GOP Opponent To this point, all of the Empire State Senate talk has revolved around the seat held by freshman Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. That might change now, with the news that CNBC talking head Larry Kudlow is increasingly likely to make a Senate bid against Charles Schumer. Schumer, seeking his third term, might sweat at Kudlow's notoriety, but the recent polling (PDF) from Marist seems to put Schumer in good shape: they have him leading Kudlow 67-25. OH-Sen: New Ras Poll Shows Dems Gaining on GOP Frontrunner Republican standard bearer Rob Portman has a huge cash edge over both Democrats (Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner). His polling edge, however, might be dissipating. A Rasmussen poll released today has Portman leading either Fisher (43-39) or Brunner (42-38) by the same four-point margin. Brunner was closer than Fisher the last time Rasmussen polled the race, but Brunner's campaign is reeling a bit from the news that she raised less than six figures in the last quarter of 2009. WA-Sen: Murray May Have Legitimate Oppo in 2010 From The GOP Patty Murray has been confronted with a series of second-tier Republicans up to this point, but that may well be about to change. Don Benton, who has served Southwestern Washington in the state Senator for years and ran for Congress over a decade ago, is looking to get into the U.S. Senate race. THE U.S. HOUSE AZ-03: Field Firming Up in the Shadegg Open Seat One of the final dominoes in the Arizona 3rd has fallen with the news that Shadegg staffer Sean Noble will not see his old boss' seat in Congress. The GOP field was probably too full, at any rate, with three state legislators and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker already in the race. On the Democratic side, Jon Hulburd has already raised an impressive amount of cash as the only announced Democrat in the field, while Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is still mulling it over. CO-03: Dusty GOP Poll Says This Could Be Close Race Here is a potentially interesting catch from DC's Political Report: a poll conducted back in December by Tarrance Group had three-term Democratic incumbent John Salazar only up two points on Republican state legislator Scott Tipton (46-44). Salazar has won easily in his last two House bids, but this is a district (on Colorado's Western Slope) which is pretty amenable to Republican candidates at the federal level. Also, the former GOP Congressman from the region, Scott McInnis, will be on the ballot as the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee, which might boost GOP turnout. HI-01: Main Dem Contenders Stands At Two With Espero Announcement Democrats got a break of sorts over the weekend with the news that Democratic State Senator Will Espero will not run for Congress. This is not intended as a slight to Espero, but is based on the peculiarities of Hawaii election law--the Spring's special election is an all-candidate affair, meaning that the Republican in the field (councilman Charles Djou) could emerge victorious given enough division in the Democratic Party's support. KS-03: Democrats Suffer Major Recruiting Setback in Moore Seat This has to be defined as a major blow for Democrats: when former KCK (Kansas City, Kansas) Mayor Carol Marinovich declined a Congressional bid a few months back, the assumption was that her successor, Joe Reardon, would make the race. Only he has also now declined to run, as well. This sends Democrats back to the drawing board in a race that is an open seat in swing territory. NH-01: Has Guinta's Fade Opened the GOP Playing Field? For most of 2009, the assumption was that the NRCC had coalesced around former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in his bid to take out sophomore Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. His weak campaign (most clearly marked by anemic fundraising) has apparently inspired a lack of confidence in his bid. One Republican, businessman Rich Ashooh, is already in, and now comes word that former GOP Committeeman Sean Mahoney is eyeing the race, as well. RI-01/RI-02: Poll Paints Different Pictures For R.I. Dems A new poll out today from Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV shows that one Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island is in good shape, while the other is in seriously perilous shape. The safe Democrat is the 2nd district's Jim Langevin, whose re-elect stands at 42%, with his "replace" figure at just 14%. For longtime Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy, however, the picture is a little less certain. Just 35% say they'd re-elect Kennedy, while 31% are interested in replacing him. TN-09: Cohen Again Target of Racial Campaign Appeal Not that he isn't already somewhat familiar with the tactic, but Tennessee Congressman Steve Cohen (who is white) is again being hit by an opponent eager to use race as a campaign rationale in the heavily-black Memphis-based 9th district. Former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, who is making a somewhat quixotic bid against Cohen, said that African-Americans living in Tennessee should find it wrong that the state's Congressional delegation is all-White. He also seemed to strongly imply that fairness dictated that the 9th distict's representative should be African-American. Cohen dealt with similar issues in his last Democratic primary against Nikki Tinker. RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Republican Girl Power! Women make up a slight majority of the population and the electorate. Despite that, they only make up roughly 15-20% of the Congress in any given year. But those are huge numbers compared to the number of women in the NRCC's vaunted "Young Guns" program for campaign challengers. At present, that number stands at a cool 6.3%. That's right, just 4 of the 64 names on the list are women. THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES CO-Gov: Rasmussen Sees A Democratic Leader in Colorado Rasmussen polls with Democrats in the lead are practically "Stop the Presses!" moments by now, so take note of this one. In the state of Colorado, Rasmussen has Democrat John Hickenlooper, Denver's Mayor, with a four-point lead over likely GOP challenger Scott McInnis (49-45). McInnis routinely led incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter, and had a three-point lead over Hickenlooper in a January poll taken just after the Denver Mayor announced his candidacy. MI-Gov: Dem Field Grows With Commitment From Bernero It looks like Democrats are finally coming off of the sideline in the high-profile open-seat Governor's race in Michigan. Virg Bernero, the forty-something mayor of Lansing, has announced that he is running for Governor. Bernero is often referred to as a "populist", which might be a good approach in this campaign cycle. Other Democrats eyeing the race including House Speaker Andy Dillon and UM Regent Denise Ilitch. NV-Gov: Reid Trails Sandoval, Leads Other GOPers Here is another Rasmussen poll that is not particularly awful for Democrats. In Nevada, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, the only high-profile Democrat in the field, trails only former federal judge Brian Sandoval among the three Republican hopefuls for Governor that were tested. Reid trails Sandoval by a solid margin (45-33), but leads both North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (40-36) and embattled incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons (44-35). NY-Gov: Paterson In Trouble? He Denies It New York Governor David Paterson became a target for some salacious campaign gossip over the weekend. Reports began to surface early in the weekend that Paterson was about to be exposed for some pretty major league personal indiscretions, with the rumor that the New York Times was working on a bombshell piece. There was even a report late in the weekend that Paterson was contemplating either resignation or retirement. Today, though, Paterson lashed out at the press, denying all rumors and implying that he was still full speed ahead on running for re-election. RI-Gov: Former GOP-Turned-Indy Leads in Deep Blue State Could the Democratic embrace of Lincoln Chafee when he left the GOP and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 be biting them on the behind now? In a deep-blue state like Rhode Island, neither major Democrat running for Governor manages to lead the former Senator in the latest poll by Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV. State Treasurer Frank Caprio comes a little closer, with Chafee edging him 31-30, with Republican John Robataille well behind. Against Democratic state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, Chafee leads 34-23, with Robataille at 18%.


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Colin to Mad: URA QT |
As Valentine's Day approaches, we find ourselves charmed by this picture, posted by the West Wing Report, of a chance meeting of former Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell. As Valentine’s Day approaches, we find ourselves charmed by this picture, posted by the West Wing Report, of a chance meeting of former Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell.
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Obama Administration Demands Anthem Blue Cross Justify Massive Rate Hikes |
The Obama administration is demanding that California’s largest for-profit health insurer, Anthem Blue Cross, justify a planned 39 percent rate increase for some of its 800,000 customers while the firm’s parent company saw its profits soar last year.
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Rep. John Murtha Dies at 77 |
Rep. John Murtha (D-Pennsylvania), a fierce critic of the Iraq war, died Monday at age 77 at Virginia Hospital Center in Arlington, Virginia. Murtha was the first Vietnam War combat veteran elected to Congress.
Murtha, who had been suffering complications from gallbladder surgery, had a distinguished 37-year career in the US Marine Corps.
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Is Pot Legalization Push in California a Trend That Will Spread? |
San Francisco - It's almost a cliché these days that this city and its sister to the east, Oakland, stand as the primary incubators of some of California's infamously wacky but later transformational social and political ideas.
From the Silicon Valley to Oakland and Berkeley to the Napa Valley – if it was at first weird, untested, illegal and/or controversial, it probably got its start right here. read more |
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Late Night: Sarah Palin, Eleventy-Dimensional “Go Fish” Player! |
Sarah Palin mistakes her cheat sheets from high school English for the keynote address to the Tea Party. via 8m4ck
Oh, fer cute. The well-groomed, overpaid homunculi at Fox News learned a new word and wanted to apply it to make their newest “contributor” feel right at home. The word for today, boys and girls, was “satire”, and the Wingnut Channel’s morning programming brain trust was knee-deep in it:
CARLSON: I think she did it on purpose. I think she did it on purpose, yeah. Because it’s an exact opposite of reading off the teleprompter with a script written for you with every word in a sentence and here’s she’s just taking crib notes on her hand. It makes her look like she can just talk off the cuff and she just jotted down a few couple notes before she went out to give a big long speech.
DOOCY: I think she did it because she probably does it a lot. I do that all the time. [...]
KILMEADE: But to sit there and look at, and do the interview and look down at her hand, I think that is — like you said before, Gretchen — folksy, absolutely, down-to-earth, I can identify. But if you’re going to write on your hand, why not just say, ’staffer, hand me a card.’ And then it would be okay.
CARLSON: Nah, like I said, I think it was on purpose. But anyway, we we may never know.
Yeah, we’ll never know because nobody in the mainstream press will ever dare challenge Palin with the most basic of questions: “WTF?”
To presume that Snowzilla is something more sophisticated than an erstwhile small-town, pathological grifter who serendipitously hit the mother lode of marks (thanks to William Kristol and American low-info voters thinking with their little heads) is giving her far too much credit. Snap out of it! Does anyone seriously believe that Alaska’s Shame was engaging in subversive performance art at the Ye Olde Shoppe o’ Teabaggery on Saturday?
But alas, this is just another example in a very long line where the (predominantly male) press gives Palin a free pass while anyone else whose political leanings are slightly to the left of Pol Pot–and who are not as telegenic as the Bumpit Bumpkin–is subject to excruciating scrutiny. This glaring double standard is why it proved so satisfying to witness Mrs. Alan Greenspan give smarmy Chuck Todd a sharp knee to the ‘nads earlier today, after he, too, tried to cut Palin slack for her palm reading.
“Daily Rundown” co-host Chuck Todd attempted to defend Palin, saying, “We’ve all done notes.”
But Mitchell said that Palin’s “cheat sheets” were damaging in that she had described President Obama as a “charismatic guy with a teleprompter.”
“If Mitt Romney had notes on his hand, wouldn’t we take it pretty seriously?” Mitchell asked Todd and co-host Savannah Guthrie.
And then Chuck Todd’s testicles went “weeeee wee wee wee” all the way home.
I often wonder how much longer the Palin Snow Job can last, given the mixed messages she broadcasts. Of course, her fanatical base will claim that she’s a brilliant strategist each time she pulls a stunt like this. The reality of it is that she’s just flinging a lot of shit at the walls, and like any good con artist, waiting to capitalize on whatever winds up sticking.
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The Future of Health Care: Anthem Helps Paint the Picture |
You can argue about the health care landscape if we instituted this reform or that reform. There's no argument about how dangerous and cruel the landscape will be under the status quo. Yes, that's the Titanic (image courtesy of National Maritime Museum)
This weekend, Anthem Blue Cross in California announced that their rates would go up as high as 39% in the next year. Up until a few months ago, when I got on my wife’s health insurance, this was my carrier. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius wants answers, but in a general sense there’s not a lot she can do. Costs are rising at a rate where insurance companies feel the need to jack up their policy premiums to maintain their profits. And without any check on that, such rate hikes will continue.
So will this:
Insurers, drugmakers and hospitals will likely slash costs and merge companies to maneuver through a U.S. health-care landscape marked by rising medical expenses and the loss of millions of potential paying customers.
With Congress’ sweeping overhaul of the health system stalled, industry will seek its own answers to a push by government and the private sector to rein in costs, said Curtis Lane, senior managing director at MTS Health Partners, a New York-based equity fund. An aging U.S. population will spur demand for services and, at the same time, boost pressure to control spending, he said.
One solution will be increased consolidation, with companies led by WellPoint Inc., the biggest U.S. insurer by enrollment, and Community Health Systems Inc., the largest publicly traded hospital chain, scooping up rivals unable to “spread rising costs across fewer customers,” said Paul Keckley, of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions.
Increasingly, out-of-work and older Americans are becoming eligible for public programs, reducing the profit pool for private insurers. They can only survive through market consolidation and continued subsidies like Medicare Advantage. Ironically, this consolidation will probably lead to major cost-cutting and putting thousands more out of work, making them unable to be eligible for employer health care, too.
You can argue about the health care landscape if we instituted this reform or that reform. There’s no argument about how dangerous and cruel the landscape will be under the status quo.
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Right Wing Round-Up |
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Right Wing Leftovers |
- This was the Focus on the Family Super Bowl ad that caused all the fuss? Consider me unimpressed.
- Hooray! Sarah Palin says it would be "absurd" for her to rule out running for president in 2012.
- Speaking of Palin, she also spoke at a campaign event for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, where she shared the stage with David Barton of Wallbuilders.
- The AFA's Bryan Fischer is really intent on making his point that life would be so much better if homosexuality were criminalized.
- Carrie Prejean has gotten engaged.
- Mike Huckabee will be headlining a fundraiser for the Minnesota Family Council in late April.
- Finally, despite receiving undeservedly flattering coverage from the Washington Post for his anti-marriage efforts, Bishop Harry Jackson blasts the paper for its coverage of the marriage equality issue.
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GOP and Tea Party Merge In South Carolina |
At the National Tea Party Convention, organizers announced that they would be starting a new PAC called Ensuring Liberty Corporation which would aim to "endorse, support and elect" conservative candidates for office ... provided they promised to be loyal Republicans:
The announcement came with an official platform that could help define what the multi-faceted tea party movement stands for and expects from the candidates it supports. The group's leaders plan to support candidates who stand for a set of "First Principles."
Those principles are: fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, less government, states' rights and national security.
Prospective political candidates will be expected to support the Republican National Committee platform. If a particular candidate meets the proposed criteria he or she would be eligible for fundraising and grassroots support.
Once elected to office, members would be expected to join a congressional caucus of "like-minded representatives" who attend regular meetings and are held accountable for the votes they cast. Those who stray from the tea party path would risk losing the new organization's support and a possible re-election challenge.
That is one way of trying to take over the Republican Party. Of coruse, an even more efficient way would be to do what they are doing in South Carolina and simply merge the two:
The South Carolina Republican Party announced Monday that it’s uniting with tea party groups in the state to share resources, coordinate messaging and push the GOP in a more conservative direction.
The points of contact between the state party establishment and the grass-roots will be the Greenville County Republican Party — one of the most conservative wings of the state party — and the Upstate Coalition of Conservative Organizations, an umbrella structure of state tea party groups.
The agreement, as announced by South Carolina Republicans, is designed to serve four goals: increase precinct involvement, improve communication between the state party and grass-roots groups, create liaisons between the state party and the various tea party organizations and to work “closely to make the Republican Party more conservative.”
State Republican Party Chairman Karen Floyd told POLITICO that the arrangement came at the suggestion of a local activist who works with both the state party and local tea party groups.
“This is not something the state party by edict pushed down,” Floyd said. “This is something the grass-roots pushed up with an understanding that we are stronger together than apart.”
Floyd said that working with the groups accomplishes her goals of “growing the Republican Party, electing conservative Republicans and growing the strength of the party,” though she was careful in describing what the party intends to do in working with the tea parties to elect more conservative members.
Frankly, it is hard to see this as anything but a looming sign of the end of Tea Party activism as a movement as it gets entirely co-opted by the existing Republican power structure.
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| After a year-long hiatus, while sitting on the sidelines and watching our new progressive momentum get trampled on by the entertainment-driven media and special interests in high places, I will return to blogging. It will be slow at first. By... After a year-long hiatus, while sitting on the sidelines and watching our new progressive momentum get trampled on by the entertainment-driven media and special interests in high places, I will return to blogging.
It will be slow at first. By the new year, I would like this blog to be fully functional. |
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A fight brewing within the GOP |
| Frustration is brewing within the GOP base. Clearly divided on the so-called 'social issues', setting religious conservatives apart from the Schwarzenegger moderate wing of the party, many Republicans are demanding that these internal issues be set straight. As written in... Frustration is brewing within the GOP base. Clearly divided on the so-called 'social issues', setting religious conservatives apart from the Schwarzenegger moderate wing of the party, many Republicans are demanding that these internal issues be set straight. As written in Sunday's Politico, the far-right is on the verge of taking over: Rank-and-file Republicans remain, by all indications, staunchly
conservative, and they appear to have no desire to moderate their
views. GOP activists and operatives say they hear intense anger at the
White House and at the party’s own leaders on familiar issues – taxes,
homosexuality, and immigration. Within the party, conservative groups
have grown stronger absent the emergence of any organized moderate
faction.
There is little appetite for compromise on what many see as core
issues, and the road to the presidential nomination lies – as always –
through a series of states where the conservative base holds sway, and
where the anger appears to be, if anything, particularly intense.
Many political scientists might choose the lazy road and compare this movement on the right to that which started on the left in late-2002. So eventually these conservatives are going to form a grassroots movement that will bring the Republican back to power, right? Actually, from a demographic standpoint, the people organizing these anti-tax rallies and fighting same-sex marriage are much older than those who formed our grassroots movement on the left. We are talking about a dying breed of conservatives whose social views run contrary to more people here in the 21st century. We are a much more tolerant country than we were 40 years ago. We elected our first black president. It's easier today for homosexual men and women to be open about their orientation. We support embryonic stem cell research. Clearly, with each passing year, there are less and less people within the far-right conservative movement to counter-balance this underlying trend towards a more progressive, open society. If conservatives have a strong card to play, it's the tax and debt subject. But every time they try their luck on social issues, with each passing year they alienate their party from the electoral majority |
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Tea Party Nuts |
| My apologies in advance for sounding blunt, ideological and even a few days behind in the news. As an observer of the Tea Party protests throughout the country, which drew around 250,000 conservatives, I can't help but shake my head... My apologies in advance for sounding blunt, ideological and even a few days behind in the news. As an observer of the Tea Party protests throughout the country, which drew around 250,000 conservatives, I can't help but shake my head and laugh. Holding up signs opposing taxes and the national debt, everything seemed to me like one big contradiction. Where do you think we get the revenue to pay down the debt? Where were those wing-nuts during the previous administration when more than $1 trillion was spent on a war that Bush for some time hid from his federal budget total? Many of the protesters feared the return of fascism. Actually, from an economic standpoint, one 20th century dictator referred to fascism as the merger between corporate and government power. So where were these tea parties during the Bush-DeLay era when the Republican lobbying machine was out of control, bridging the private sector with various wings of the executive and legislative branches? Environmental and trade agreements written by lobbyists that used to be the very polluters and monopolistic giants that these laws were supposed to keep in check. I'll tell you about fascism. On a social level, fascism is on the rise when certain right-wing leaders suspend habeas corpus, set up undisclosed detention camps and using the war on terrorism to spy on groups inside the US that pose no harm to the country. Where were the tea parties then? Still waiting for an answer. |
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ideas for progress, and tolerant of the ideas and behavior of others;
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